ASSESSMENT OF SALINE INTRUSION RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON LAND USE IN CAN THO CITY

Abstract

This study aims to assess the spatial distribution of agricultural land use in Soctrang province (pre-July 2025) in 2024 and to identify areas at risk of saline intrusion under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050. Multi-temporal Sentinel-1A and Sentinel-2 MSI satellite imagery were employed to classify land use in 2024 using the Random Forest algorithm, resulting in a classification into 11 land use categories. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, rice cultivation areas affected by salinity levels exceeding 4 g/l are estimated at 50,242.0 hectares in 2030 and 52,099.2 hectares in 2050, underscoring the urgent need for appropriate adaptation measures to address the increasing salinity conditions. This study contributes to providing a critical scientific basis for land use planning, contributing to climate-resilient and sustainable agriculture.